I was staring at the pile of lumber for the deck I was supposed to be building last spring. Quotes from the yard were eye-watering. “Are lumber prices going down 2022?” I grumbled to my neighbor, who was looking equally shell-shocked at his own stack of 2x6s. We’d both been through the wild ride of 2021, and the thought of paying those prices again for what felt like glorified firewood was enough to make me want to just buy a pre-fab deck. But that’s not really my style. I like building things myself, even when the supply chain decides to play Twister with the market.
So, I rolled up my sleeves, did the research, and frankly, I learned a lot. It wasn’t as simple as just waiting for a magic price drop.
What the Heck Happened to Lumber Prices, Anyway?
Let’s cut to the chase. If you were trying to build, renovate, or even just fix a fence in 2021, you probably felt like you were getting fleeced.
Lumber prices went absolutely bonkers. We’re talking double, sometimes triple, what we were used to.
The pandemic threw a wrench into everything, and lumber was no exception. Demand for DIY projects and home renovations shot up as people were stuck at home. Suddenly, everyone wanted wood.
At the same time, sawmills were dealing with their own set of problems – labor shortages, transportation issues, and even wildfires disrupting supply in some regions. It was a perfect storm, and lumber futures went through the roof.
Honestly, I remember seeing a single 8-foot 2×4 going for nearly $15. Fifteen bucks! I thought they’d started carving them out of solid gold.
This isn’t just about the big construction companies; it trickled down to us DIYers. Every single board you needed for a project suddenly cost a small fortune. I’d planned out a small shed, budgeted it, and then went to price it out a month later. The lumber alone had doubled. I almost scrapped the whole thing. It was frustrating, to say the least. You’d hear all these predictions, and frankly, most of them felt like guesswork. The whole situation was so volatile. It’s like trying to predict the weather a year out – you can make an educated guess, but a lot can change.
The Big Question: Are Lumber Prices Going Down 2022?
So, are lumber prices going down 2022? The short answer is: it’s complicated. They did come down from their insane peaks of 2021. If you were hoping for a return to pre-pandemic prices, well, that hasn’t quite happened yet.
Think of it more as a significant correction, not a full reset. By the end of 2021 and into early 2022, we saw prices start to ease. Demand cooled off a bit as people got back to work and took vacations. Supply chains started to get a little more predictable, though still not perfect.
Mills ramped up production, and there was more wood available. But the underlying factors that made lumber so expensive – increased demand for housing, the cost of transportation, labor – they didn’t just vanish.
I remember checking prices religiously. It felt like a rollercoaster. One week, a specific type of plywood would drop by 10%, and I’d get excited. The next week, it would creep back up. (See Also: Are Lumber Prices Going Up Again )
It’s not a straight line down. Some species of wood, or certain dimensions, might see bigger drops than others. Framing lumber, which is what most people think of for decks and framing houses, saw some of the biggest price drops from its highs.
But specialty woods, or engineered lumber, might still be holding their value or falling much slower. The market is a living, breathing thing, and it reacts to a million different inputs. It’s important to understand that the dips you see might be temporary, or specific to certain products.
Don’t just assume everything is suddenly cheap again.
My Deck Disaster: A Cautionary Tale
I learned this the hard way with my deck project. I’d waited, hoping for prices to plummet.
By mid-2022, they had come down from the absolute insanity of 2021. I saw what looked like a good deal on treated 2x6s and bought enough for the whole deck frame and surface.
I was so proud of myself for “beating the market.” A month later, I needed a few extra boards to finish a small planter box. I went back to the same lumber yard, and the price for the exact same boards had jumped back up almost 20%. I felt like such an idiot. I’d bought at a decent price, but not the lowest price, and I paid a premium for the waiting and the fluctuating market.
I should have just bought it all when I saw a price I could live with, rather than trying to time the market perfectly. My lesson?
Find a price that works for your budget and buy what you need, rather than waiting for some mythical bottom that may or may not arrive. Or worse, may have already passed.
Factors Still Influencing Lumber Costs
So, if prices aren’t just magically back to where they were, what’s keeping them from completely crashing? A few key things.
First, housing demand. While it might have cooled slightly from the frenzied pace of the pandemic, there’s still a significant need for new homes. This keeps a baseline demand for lumber. Even if individual buyers like us are holding back, the larger builders are still buying.
Second, the cost of doing business for sawmills hasn’t necessarily decreased. Energy costs are still high, transportation remains a headache and a significant expense, and finding skilled labor is an ongoing challenge for many industries, including forestry and milling. (See Also: Are Lumber Prices Going To Continue To Rise )
These operational costs get factored into the price of the final product. You can’t just ignore the cost of running a mill or getting the wood to your local yard.
Then there’s global supply and demand, which is always a factor. If there are issues with timber harvesting in Canada due to environmental regulations or wildfires, or if demand spikes in other parts of the world, it can affect prices here. It’s not just about what’s happening in my backyard or even just in the US. Think about the price of fuel.
That directly impacts the cost of transporting logs to the mill and then the finished lumber to the retail yard. If diesel prices are through the roof, so is the cost of getting lumber from Point A to Point B.
We also saw some consolidation in the lumber industry. Fewer, larger players can sometimes have more control over pricing than a highly fragmented market. It’s a complex web, and you can’t isolate just one or two factors and expect to understand the whole picture. The construction sector’s health is a huge indicator, and while it might be taking a breather, it’s not in a death spiral.
What to Look for When Buying Lumber Now
If you’re looking to buy lumber in 2022 or heading into 2023, you need to be smart about it. Don’t just walk into the closest big box store and grab whatever’s on the shelf without checking prices. Shop around. I’ve found that local lumber yards, while sometimes less convenient for impulse buys, often have better pricing or at least more knowledgeable staff who can give you actual advice instead of just pointing you to an aisle. They might also have better quality wood. Seriously, I’ve seen some pretty warped and knotty stuff at the big places that makes you wonder if they even bothered to grade it.
When you’re comparing prices, make sure you’re comparing apples to apples. Is it kiln-dried? What grade is it?
Pressure-treated? The same nominal size board can vary wildly in price based on these factors.
I always bring a list and a notebook. I’ll jot down prices from a couple of places for the specific items I need. Don’t be afraid to ask for quotes, especially if you’re buying in bulk for a larger project.
Some places offer discounts for volume. Also, keep an eye on market reports.
There are industry publications and even some financial news outlets that track lumber futures. It’s not a perfect predictor for retail prices, but it can give you a general sense of the direction things are moving.
For instance, seeing futures for pine jump might mean your pine boards will soon follow, or vice versa. It’s about being an informed consumer, not just a passive buyer. (See Also: Are Lumber Prices Going To Go Up )
| Product Type | My 2021 Price (Peak) | My Early 2022 Price | My Late 2022 Price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8′ 2×6 Treated Pine | $14.50 | $8.75 | $7.25 | Significant drop, but still higher than pre-pandemic. Good time to buy if needed. |
| 4×8 Sheet CDX Plywood | $70.00 | $48.00 | $42.00 | Came down considerably. Prices seem more stable here. |
| 8′ 2×4 Stud Grade Spruce | $12.00 | $6.50 | $5.90 | Back to somewhat reasonable levels, but quality can vary wildly. |
| 1x6x12 Cedar Decking | $25.00 | $18.00 | $19.50 | Cedar seems to be holding its value more. Slight uptick late in the year. |
Common Mistakes When Buying Lumber
The biggest mistake I see people make, and honestly, one I’ve made myself, is panicking. When prices are high, you might overpay just to get your project started. When prices drop, you might hoard lumber you don’t immediately need, only for it to sit in your yard and potentially warp or get damaged. I’ve got a stack of 2x4s in my garage that I bought at a “good” price last year, and now I’m not even sure if I’ll use them for what I originally intended. They’re just… there.
Another common error is not accounting for waste. You always need to buy more than your exact measurements. I usually add 10-15% for cuts, mistakes, and unusable boards.
People often underestimate this, and then they have to make another trip to the lumber yard, paying whatever the price is then, which could be higher. Also, don’t assume all lumber from a big-box store is the same quality. Inspect every board.
Look for straightness, minimal knots (especially in structural pieces), and signs of damage. If a board is twisted or has a massive knot right where you need to cut, leave it. It’s not worth the frustration or the wasted money. My uncle once built half a wall with boards that looked okay but had hidden twists.
The whole thing ended up being out of plumb. He had to tear it down and start over. That’s a mistake you only make once.
People Also Ask: Your Lumber Price Questions Answered
Will Lumber Prices Drop Further?
It’s unlikely we’ll see a sustained drop back to pre-pandemic lows anytime soon. While prices have corrected from their 2021 highs, factors like ongoing housing demand, transportation costs, and mill operational expenses are keeping prices lifted compared to historical averages. Expect continued fluctuation rather than a steep, permanent decline.
When Did Lumber Prices Start to Fall?
Lumber prices began to show signs of a significant correction and decrease from their all-time highs in the latter half of 2021, continuing into early 2022. However, this was more of a plateau and gradual decline from extreme peaks, not an immediate return to lower, stable prices.
What Is the Current Price of Lumber Per Board Foot?
The current price of lumber per board foot fluctuates daily and varies by wood species, grade, and location. As of late 2022, framing lumber prices were significantly down from their peaks but still higher than pre-2020 levels, often ranging from $0.50 to $1.00+ per board foot depending on the specific product and market conditions.
How Much Did Lumber Prices Increase During the Pandemic?
During the peak of the pandemic-driven surge in 2021, many types of lumber saw price increases of 200% to 300% or more compared to their early 2020 levels. Specific boards that cost $4-$5 might have reached $15-$20 at the height of the market frenzy.
Final Thoughts
So, to wrap up the whole lumber price saga for 2022, the answer to ‘are lumber prices going down 2022’ is a qualified yes, but not a complete return to cheap. Prices came down from the stratosphere, which was a relief for anyone trying to tackle a project. However, they haven’t settled back to the bargain-basement levels of years past. The market is still finding its footing, influenced by a mix of persistent demand, operational costs, and broader economic factors.
My advice? Don’t wait around indefinitely for some magical price collapse. Instead, keep an eye on the market, know what a reasonable price looks like for your specific needs, and be prepared to buy when you find a deal that fits your budget. Shopping smart, comparing prices, and understanding the variables will serve you much better than just guessing when the absolute bottom will hit. It’s about being strategic in a still-unpredictable market.
